cmd/derpprobe: don't alert for smaller failures.

There is a Cosmic Background level of DERP Unreachability,
with individual nodes or regions becoming unreachable briefly
and returning a short time later. This is due to hosting provider
outages or just the Internet sloshing about.

Returning a 500 error pages a human. Being awoken at 3am for
a transient error is annoying.

For relatively small levels of badness don't page a human,
just post to Slack. If the outage impacts a significant fraction
of the DERP fleet, then page a human.

Signed-off-by: Denton Gentry <dgentry@tailscale.com>
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500 Internal Server Error

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